Epps doesn’t think that today’s e-readers will do for e-books what the iPod did for MP3s. Even if 10 million people are toting an e-book reader at the end of next year, that’s less than 1 percent of the 110 million people who have MP3 players. And at current prices, she believes the market for e-readers will top out at 25 million.
Emphasis added by me.
I think even with significantly lower prices it won’t go beyond that.
The leisurely pace of limited eInk is well suited to the geriatric set.
And as they die off, you think the young will take their place?
They’ll have been busy reading digital books.
I still agree with myself on this. eBooks will have a limited place in the market for a long, long time. which is not to say it can’t thrive. But we can’t undo Guttenberg in the course of a few years.
It would be a coup to market ereaders to seniors. A total fucking revolution, because they read more than anyone, as a single demographic. But the early-adopters and wackjob wingnut authors out there are the ones mostly self publishing digitally exclusively, so the demographic of seniors are probably not their target audience. I should research before I talk here, but I am speculating that vampire books aren’t for seniors, either.
>>>But we can’t undo Guttenberg in the course of a few years.
*snort.* How fast did we overthrow the typewriter?
You’re hopeful-er than I. Typewriter went through its own stages of reinvention. Remember the Brother 2-line digital memory one, right around 1989? That lasted a few years in different forms. And it took a while to get digitally organized as well. Remember those little pocket electronic organizers, pre-Palm? And then Palm (sans phone)?
We have a few years before adoption of the ereader, so that’s why I’m not getting attached to any of the current platforms.
Get attached to the idea of *digital books* and you’ll be halfway on the right track.